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The Antarctic Peninsula, part of the British Antarctic Territory, is a global biodiversity hotspot, and a focus of tourism, scientific and fishing operations. The region is warming rapidly, at up to two times the global rate of 0.27°C per decade.  

This Policy Brief presents the key findings of research into the threats posed to the Peninsula under three global warming scenarios. It provides a vital update to research published in 2019 that examined the impacts of warming limited to 1.5°C, a scenario that is now unachievable.  

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The Antarctic Peninsula, part of British Antarctic Territory, is warming rapidly, up to two times the global mean rate of 0.27°C per decade. Substantial and irreparable environmental damage to the Antarctic Peninsula will occur if global warming exceeds 2°C.  

Significant loss of sea ice, ice shelf collapse and glacier recession risk self-perpetuating processes that will amplify polar warming and influence global climate, ocean circulation and sea level.  

The changing Antarctic Peninsula climate has ramifications for species migration and loss, with impacts on krill, fishing, and food chains for large marine mammals. Extreme weather has led to flooded penguin nest sites and low sea ice, leading to failures of Emperor Penguin breeding colonies.  

Action to rapidly reduce carbon emissions can limit long term and severe impacts on the Antarctic Peninsula, including impacts to marine and terrestrial biodiversity and human operations, and limit wider ramifications for global systems.  

Global warming will require a more flexible and dynamic approach to marine protected areas and other initiatives designed to conserve biodiversity in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic continent.  

Environmental changes on the Peninsula, alongside increased shipping, tourism and fishing, may place stress on the Antarctic Treaty System and associated legal instruments.  

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Professor Bethan Davies, Newcastle University  

Professor Angus Atkinson, Plymouth Marine Laboratory  

Professor Alison Banwell, Northumbria University   

Professor Mark Brandon MBE, Open University.  

Professor Peter Convey, British Antarctic Survey  

Dr Thomas Caton Harrison, British Antarctic Survey   

Dr Jan De Rydt, Northumbria University  

Professor Klaus Dodds, RAND Europe  

Rod Downie, WWF-UK  

Professor Tamsin Edwards, Kings College London  

Dr Ella Gilbert, British Antarctic Survey  

Professor Bryn Hubbard, Aberystwyth University  

Dr Kevin Hughes, British Antarctic Survey  

Professor Joeri Rogelj, ImperiaCollege London  

Jane Rumble OBE, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office  

Dr Gareth Marshall, British Antarctic Survey  

Dr Andrew Orr, British Antarctic Survey  

Professor Helene Seroussi, Dartmouth College  

Professor Martin Siegert, Exeter University  

Professor Julienne Stroeve, University College London