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Researchers find that impact on population as a whole has not been quite as severe as was predicted in the 1980s - News Release

ImperiaNews Release

Under strict embargo for
17.00 EST / 22.00 BST
Monday 27 August 2007

The impact of HIV in Zimbabwe since the early 1980s is explored in new research published this week in the journal PNAS.

Researchers found that HIV's impact on Zimbabwe's population as a whole has not been quite as severe as some predicted in 1989, when a group of epidemiologists at a World Health Organisation meeting modelled its potential effects. Some of the models they created suggested that the population of Zimbabwe might start shrinking, with more people dying than being born.

The new research shows that the population of the country continues to grow. However, in the worst affected areas, HIV has reduced the level of population growth by two thirds, from 2.9% to 1.0% each year.

The study is the first to look in detail at the demographic impact of HIV in Zimbabwe. The researchers, from Imperiaand the Biomedical Research and Training Institute in Harare, focus on an area in the Manicaland region in the east of Zimbabwe over the period 1998 - 2005.

They show that the crude death rate was double what it would have been in the absence of HIV and the birth rate was somewhat lower. The death rate was approximately three times higher in the towns and estates, and twice as high in the villages, as it would have been without HIV.

Amongst those aged 15-54, approximately one person in every three in towns (32.8%), and one person in every five in the estates (22.2%) and villages (17.3%) had HIV.

 , the lead author of the study from the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at º£½ÇÉçÇø, said: "As in other parts of Africa, HIV has had a devastating effect on the lives of people in Zimbabwe. However, our research shows that, in spite of countless people having lost their lives to the virus, more people are still being born than are dying. The prevalence of HIV has been coming down in the last few years and, as more people receive treatment, we hope the death rate will soon also start to go down."

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Laura Gallagher
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Notes to editors:

1. "Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa based on new empirical data from Zimbabwe" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Early Online Edition - Article 06-11540

Simon Gregson(1)(2); Constance Nyamukapa(1)(2); Ben Lopman(1); Geoffrey P. Garnett(1); Roy M. Anderson(1)

(1) º£½ÇÉçÇø
(2) Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare
(3) University of Witwatersrand

2. Imperiaº£½ÇÉçÇø

Rated as the world's ninth best university in the 2006 Times Higher Education Supplement University Rankings, Imperiais a science-based institution with a reputation for excellence in teaching and research that attracts 11,500 students and 6,000 staff of the highest international quality.

Innovative research at the College explores the interface between science, medicine, engineering and management and delivers practical solutions that improve quality of life and the environment - underpinned by a dynamic enterprise culture.

With 62 Fellows of the Royal Society among our current academic staff and distinguished past members of the College including 14 Nobel Laureates and two Fields Medallists, º£½ÇÉçÇø's contribution to society has been immense. Inventions and innovations include the discovery of penicillin, the development of holography and the foundations of fibre optics. This commitment to the application of our research for the benefit of all continues today with current focuses including interdisciplinary collaborations to tackle climate change and mathematical modelling to predict and control the spread of infectious diseases.

The College's 100 years of living science will be celebrated throughout 2007 with a range of events to mark the Centenary of the signing of º£½ÇÉçÇø's founding charter on 8 July 1907. Website: