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@article{Shim:2026:10.1016/j.wace.2026.100971,
author = {Shim, CY and Min, SK and Lee, D and Sparrow, S and Allen, MR},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100971},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
title = {Attribution and projection of 2020 summer-like hot-wet compound extremes in East Asia using large-ensemble regional climate simulations},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100971},
volume = {54},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - A hot June followed by exceptionally wet July-August conditions in 2020 caused widespread disruption across East Asia; however, the anthropogenic contributions to such hot–wet compound extremes (HWCEs) and their future risk remain insufficiently understood. Using large-ensemble regional climate simulations from the Weather@Home framework, we quantify anthropogenic influences on the likelihood of 2020-like HWCEs across three subregional hotspots, the Korean Peninsula (KP), southern Japan (JS), and the southern Yangtze River Basin (YS), and assess changes in their future risk at global warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C above preindustrial levels. Comparisons between simulations representing the present-day world (ALL; forced by anthropogenic and natural drivers) and a counterfactual world (NAT; forced by natural drivers only) indicate that anthropogenic forcing has increased the likelihood of HWCE across all subregions. Greenhouse-gas-only (GHG) simulations further indicate that this elevated HWCE risk is primarily driven by rising GHG concentrations. Future projections indicate substantial increases in HWCE risk with higher levels of global warming. Overall, our large-ensemble reginal climate simulations highlight the growing risk of HWCEs in densely populated regions of East Asia and the importance of GHG emission reductions in limiting future increases in this risk.
AU - Shim,CY
AU - Min,SK
AU - Lee,D
AU - Sparrow,S
AU - Allen,MR
DO - 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100971
PY - 2026///
SN - 2212-0947
TI - Attribution and projection of 2020 summer-like hot-wet compound extremes in East Asia using large-ensemble regional climate simulations
T2 - Weather and Climate Extremes
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100971
VL - 54
ER -