Predicting the effects of climate warming: from chemistry to evolution
Dr Priyanga Amarasekare
I want to make the argument that predicting the effects of environmental perturbations on biodiversity requires developing theory that integrates across levels of information, from chemistry to evolution. I focus on temperature variation and phenotypic plasticity, not least because temperature is integral to all life processes, and climate warming poses one of the greatest threats to life on earth. Predicting the effects of warming requires knowing whether organisms have sufficient plasticity to respond to current levels of warming, and whether plasticity can evolve fast enough to keep pace with warming. But, existing plasticity is the result of past evolution, while future plasticity is the result of future evolution. My thesis is that chemistry is integral to both understanding past evolution and predicting future evolution. I will present theory and data to support this idea and discuss future research directions.